What are emerging risks?
Occupational risk prevention was built on well-known hazards: machinery, working at heights, common chemicals, noise, and heavy loads. But work is changing, and with it come risks that traditional assessments don’t consider, or that existed but whose magnitude or understanding has changed. Since 2005, the EU-OSHA European Risk Observatory has been anticipating these risks through prospective studies and expert surveys, so that companies and public officials can prepare before they materialize into harm.
The EU-OSHA definition combines two conditions. New: the risk did not exist (for example, those arising from collaborative robotics or nanomaterials), or existed but was not considered (stress from hyperconnectivity), or is now identified thanks to new knowledge (effects of certain chemical agents) or a change in social perception (external violence in customer service). Increasing: the number of hazards, the number of people exposed, the frequency or intensity of exposure, or the severity of the effects is growing.
In Spain, the Spanish Strategy for Safety and Health at Work 2023-2027 includes anticipating emerging risks among its objectives, and the National Institute for Safety and Health at Work (INSST) maintains lines of work on digitalization, new forms of organization, nanomaterials, climate change, and aging . Regarding occupational risks arising from climate change, ISO has published the ISO/PAS 45007 specification . While Law 31/1995 does not specifically regulate these risks, the general duty of protection and the requirement to assess all working conditions necessitate their consideration when they affect the company.
Main emerging risks identified
- Digitalization and artificial intelligence. Algorithmic work management, monitoring, intensification, loss of autonomy, collaborative robotics and human-machine interaction, cybersecurity with impact on physical safety and new cognitive demands.
- New forms of work. Working on digital platforms, teleworking, hybrid work, precariousness and isolation, with difficulties in applying the classic preventive framework.
- Psychosocial risks. Hyperconnectivity, information overload, job insecurity, violence and harassment, including digital, and emotional demands in sectors that care for people.
- New chemical agents and nanomaterials. Exposure to nanomaterials and substances with poorly understood effects, endocrine disruptors, and complex mixtures, with uncertainty about exposure limits.
- Climate change. Heat stress from heat waves, exposure to ultraviolet radiation, new biological vectors, extreme weather events and risks in the activities of the energy transition and the circular economy.
- Demographic changes. Aging of the working population, with the need to adapt jobs, and diversity of the workforce in terms of age, gender, origin and abilities.
- Biological risks. Pandemics and emerging diseases, with lessons from COVID-19 on preparedness and protection of essential sectors.
How to anticipate them
- Environmental monitoring. Tracking publications from EU-OSHA, the INSST, the ILO and health authorities, and regulatory and technological changes in the sector.
- Dynamic assessment. Review of the risk assessment in the face of the introduction of new technologies, forms of organization or products, with prior consultation with the representatives (Article 33 of Law 31/1995).
- Precautionary principle. In the face of scientific uncertainty, apply proportionate exposure reduction measures without waiting for definitive evidence.
- Participation and training. Workers tend to perceive new risks sooner; communication channels and training on the new conditions.
- Leading indicators. Incidents, complaints, absenteeism, survey results, and sensor data as early signals.
Organizational application: how to manage emerging risks
- Incorporate into the preventive policy the commitment to anticipate emerging risks and assign the monitoring of the environment to the prevention service.
- Establish a change management procedure that requires assessing risks before introducing new technologies, products, processes, or organizational forms, in consultation with representatives.
- Review the psychosocial and ergonomic assessment in the face of digitalization, teleworking or algorithmic management, and the hygienic assessment in the face of new agents or nanomaterials.
- Include extreme heat and other effects of climate change in assessments and emergency plans.
- Adapting positions and organization to the aging of the workforce and diversity, with adequate health monitoring.
- Train managers and staff on new risks and open channels to communicate unforeseen situations.
- Define leading indicators and review the analysis of emerging risks annually in the management review.
Preventive management software allows you to record technological and organizational changes, link them to the review of the assessment, track leading indicators, and document the decisions made under the precautionary principle.
Limits and common mistakes
- Waiting for specific regulations or definitive evidence before acting on an emerging risk.
- Introducing technologies, algorithms or products without assessing their effects on safety and health or consulting representatives.
- Treating emerging risks as issues of innovation or human resources unrelated to prevention.
- Reducing the analysis to a generic list without specifying which risks affect the company and which positions.
- Ignoring emerging risks in traditional sectors, such as extreme heat in construction and agriculture.
- Not periodically reviewing the analysis, when the nature of these risks is precisely their evolution.
The list of emerging risks changes over time; updated publications from EU-OSHA and INSST should be consulted.
Practical example
Situation: A logistics company with 600 people implements an algorithmic management system for order preparation tasks and exoskeletons for handling loads.
- Change management. Before implementation, the prevention service analyzes emerging risks: increased pace and loss of autonomy due to the algorithm, human-exoskeleton interaction, and monitoring with data protection implications; consultation with worker safety representatives.
- Evaluation. Review of the psychosocial (pace, control, monitoring), ergonomic (use of the exoskeleton, adaptation, times) and data protection (impact assessment) evaluation.
- Measures. Algorithm parameters with time limits and pauses, human supervision of assignments, exoskeleton trial period with voluntary participation and health monitoring, and transparency regarding the data collected.
- Monitoring. Leading indicators (complaints, incidents, reported problems, absenteeism) reviewed monthly during the first year and reassessed at the end.
Regulatory and reference framework
- Law 31/1995, articles 14, 15, 16 and 33. Duty of protection, preventive principles, evaluation and consultation before the introduction of new technologies.
- European Risk Observatory, EU-OSHA . Anticipation of new and emerging risks: prospective studies and publications.
- Spanish Strategy for Safety and Health at Work 2023-2027 . Objectives on anticipating emerging risks, digitalization and climate change.
- EU strategic framework for health and safety at work 2021-2027 . Anticipating and managing change in the new world of work.
- Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Regulation) . High-risk AI systems in the field of employment and worker management.
The International Labour Organization publishes reports on the future of work and safety and health; in Colombia, Decree 1072 of 2015 requires the identification of hazards in the face of changes in processes and technologies.
